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MiddleAged Guy

A bold Prediction!

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Hi Folks,

I tracked the change in crowns for the top 200 cutoff and L.O. 3 for the last 5 days.  Crowns in the LO 3 is increasing at almost four times the rate of the top 200!  At least, for the last week!

We (LO3) are consistently gaining a little under 200 crowns per *day* on average.  while the cut-off for the top 200 is only at average ~50 crowns per day.  Which leads to my bold prediciton! 

I, MiddleAged Guy declare:

"On August 4th, LO 3 will reach the top 200 by exceeding 28500 crowns."

(give or take a couple days/hundred crowns, 19 times out of 20).

Here is my nerd-plot:

nerdplot.jpg

 

There, I made my prediction and my prediction is mine.  :reading7:

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Wow, you convinced me!

Hope your prediction comes true!

You can change your name to MiddleAgedNostradamus...

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Pretty amazing evidence! This is the kind of hard work I like to see in the LO alliances!

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It is, however, increasingly difficult as you advance in Power ranking to maintain crowns.  If it weren't, I would be at 70K crowns right now.

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Well, I'll keep tracking it and update weekly.  When there are more than 5 data points, I'll do better regression analysis (and nerdify it some more just for kicks.). 

Thanks for the nice comments. and thanks for the promotion!

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Of course (as a future scientist), I love the nerdy stuff, and I also know that the map is not the territory. I hope that, once your new information comes in, the new predictions are even better!

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Here's an update since the last post.  Have to make some revisions! Thanks BBQ for the historical data!  That really helps the analysis!  The confidence intervals (shown as dashed lines) offer a 95% confidence range of where the trendline is heading.  While the last few days have been more erratic, if one takes into account the historical data (from May onwards), things are looking very good!  If I was a punter, I would put some money down on a bet here!

 

nerdplot_2_June23.thumb.jpg.4549acae9ac5

So within a 90% certainty, if the trend holds,  we'll achieve Top 200 probably sooner than my first prediction!  :)

 

 

Edited by MiddleAged Guy
Updated data (thanks BBQ!)

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Well, that's sad. I didn't even make the list! :o Guess that means I need to get back to work! :spc_working_100-106:

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Update:  things are looking great!  While the top 200 have been showing a higher rate of crown increase, the LO3 have also increased the rate of crown gains (on average).  Early August is still looking good for the Leftovers!

nerdplot_July1.thumb.jpg.31531f3c8c9c19d

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I love this! This graph is showing all the hard work LO3 has been putting in to achieving greatness! Good work, shims. I am proud to call you all a branch of the Leftovers alliances! :rockon:

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Yes! That marks three Leftover alliances in the top 200! Time for LO3 to join LO in the top 60.

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Woo Hoo!!  I'll be doing my best to keep the momentum going.  upgrading like crazy and getting solid advice from our top shims :)

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